In common with many sceptic commentators, I believe that the Climate Alarmist dam is now riddled with significant cracks, making its final collapse inevitable. The IPCC has jettisoned the Hockey Stick and admitted the 17-year ‘pause’ in global warming, both of which would have been outright heresy only a few years ago. Claims about locating the ‘missing’ heat in the ocean depths are dutifully reported by the BBC et al but the can of worms is now open. The sensitivity of the climate to CO2 is clearly much lower than the Alarmist’s original claims, and every attempt they make to explain the ‘pause’ implicitly admits that natural variation is far stronger than was previously acknowledged. The logic they shy away from is clear: if variation is now somehow cooling the earth, it must also be a prime candidate for the warming that took place around the 1990s.
Unfortunately we are still quite a long way from the end of Alarmism. It will only be over in a meaningful way when politicians stop seizing it as a convenient excuse for their own shortcomings, as is currently happening in the UK with the furore over the mismanagement of waterways and flood defences. The first time a politician choses to stand up and take the flak (or at least throw a few underlings or civil servants to the wolves) rather than use Climate Change as an excuse for a problem, we will know the game is finally up. This can only happen once widespread public opinion turns against Alarmism, which I think will take place once the full financial horror of green energy subsidies and their attendant corruption becomes apparent. It will take a few more years but we already heading firmly down that path.
Pointman recently made an excellent observation here, that alarmists are visibly entering the anger phase of the break-down of their cherished but anti-human belief system. Having enjoyed the sponsorship of governments and NGOs for so long, I do not doubt that they will be quick to take the law into their own hands once they are left by the wayside. Victorious armies have little need of military police, beyond preventing looting and unsnarling traffic jams. But in defeat, drumhead courts martial are quick to appear as discipline breaks down. Similarly, once the sea-change in public opinion takes place, we will see the next stage in the meltdown of the hard-core Alarmists. This will manifest itself in a whirlwind of recrimination and in-fighting. Those who start to hedge their position will be furiously denounced by the last-ditchers, in language far worse than they already use on ‘deniers’. Instead of exchanging chummy emails (as seen in Climategate), ‘The Team’ will splinter as completely as communists have in the post-Soviet Union era.
And, obviously, I just can’t wait.